How NASA is advancing post-wildfire air quality forecasting

UTA-led project will advance real-time air quality forecasting and health risk communication tools

As wildfire events become more frequent and far-reaching across the globe, the University of Texas at Arlington (UTA) has been selected by NASA to lead the development of an early-warning system designed to alert communities when wildfire smoke threatens air quality and public health.

Dr. Yunyao Li, Assistant Professor in UTA’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, will co-lead the project through a grant from NASA’s Science Mission Directorate Earth Science Division.  

Why do we need an early warning system for post-wildfire air quality?

The system aims to improve wildfire-related air quality forecasting and enable informed public health responses.

“Our project aims to enhance wildfire air quality forecasting capabilities and develop tools that advance decision-making processes related to wildfire air quality and health management,” said Dr. Li.

Wildfires are a significant and growing source of hazardous air pollution, with smoke capable of traveling hundreds or even thousands of kilometres from its origin.

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In 2023, wildfires in Quebec, Canada, triggered severe air pollution in cities like New York and Washington, D.C., a reminder of how cross-border impacts complicate air quality monitoring and communication.

“Wildfires are becoming more and more of a threat in many parts of the U.S. and abroad, and accurate air quality forecasting is critical to protecting the health of people who might feel the effects of these fires far from their origin,” said Dr. Arne Winguth, professor and chair of UTA’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.  

“This study will help provide valuable tools to enhance these forecasting capabilities.”

What monitoring systems will be used?

The team includes collaborators from New York University, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, with additional support from NASA, NOAA, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Forest Service.

“This system will leverage Earth observations to develop a sophisticated model-weighting technique, thereby enhancing current air quality forecast capabilities,” said Li.

The project will not only refine smoke dispersion modelling but also support the creation of practical tools and communication products.  

A fire smoke visualisation platform and patient-centred messaging system are in development to help deliver real-time alerts and public health guidance.  

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The forecasting system will also contribute to the U.S. EPA’s AirNow platform, strengthening its ability to provide accurate and localised information.

Air quality professionals in wildfire-prone regions, including parts of Australia, Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America, may find value in tracking the outcomes of this research.  

As wildfire smoke increasingly presents a global monitoring challenge, this project represents a step forward in leveraging satellite data and interagency collaboration to support public health and environmental protection.

Jed Thomas