How likely is summer drought in 2025 for UK and Western Europe?

What our early warning systems and monitoring infrastructures are telling us about the coming months.

Low water levels at Woodhead Reservoir in northern England have become a familiar sight after the exceptionally dry spring of 2025.  

As reservoirs drop and soils dry out, the UK and western Europe are bracing for potential drought in the coming months.

After an exceptionally dry spring, the UK and much of Western Europe are facing an elevated risk of summer drought in 2025. Reservoirs are dropping, soils are drying out, and multiple early warning systems are flashing red.

How close is England to a drought?

England has had its driest start to spring since 1956. March rainfall was just 25% of normal, and April reached only 50%.  

By early May, total UK spring rainfall was around 80 mm, about 35% of the seasonal norm, putting the country on track for its driest spring on record.  

Sunshine levels have been extreme too, with April 2025 the sunniest April ever recorded, following a near-record March.  

April’s mean temperature was 9.6 °C, 1.7 °C above the long-term average, amplifying soil desiccation through elevated evaporation.  

Some areas have seen over 20 consecutive dry days.

Is the situation similar across western Europe?

Western and northern Europe show similar patterns.  

A dry March hit the UK, Ireland, northern Germany, and Scandinavia, and by April, drought signals had spread across central and western Europe.  

River levels on the Rhine dropped sharply, affecting navigation, while European Commission soil analyses showed much of northern  

Europe was significantly drier than usual by late March.  

The driving factor has been a persistent high-pressure system, blocking Atlantic rainfall and locking in warm, sunny, dry conditions.

The message from our monitoring infrastructure

Drought risk is tracked using a network of tools.  

The European Drought Observatory’s Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) synthesises rainfall deficits, soil moisture, and satellite vegetation data to detect drought stages.  

As of mid-April, large swathes of Europe were under "watch" or "warning" status, confirming widespread soil drying and water stress.

In the UK, the Environment Agency combines meteorological indices (like the Standardised Precipitation Index), hydrological data (river flow, groundwater, reservoir levels), and satellite imagery to assess drought conditions.  

By May, many streams in northern and central England were running low, although groundwater-fed rivers in the southeast remained more stable thanks to recharge from a wet 2024.

Reservoirs are showing early signs of stress: national storage was just 84% of capacity by late April, down from around 90% at the same point in 2022.  

Notably, several large northern reservoirs were at “exceptionally low” levels for spring.

Reports from the (dry) ground

Eastern England’s farmers are reporting powder-dry topsoils, unusual this early in the growing season.  

River flows in fast-responding catchments have declined sharply, and the Thames catchment received just 13% of its normal spring rainfall.  

Agricultural impacts are emerging: spring crops like barley and sugar beet are showing stress, and irrigation has begun much earlier than usual.  

The National Farmers’ Union warns of possible yield losses if rain doesn’t arrive soon.

Wildfire activity has surged in dry upland areas, including Cumbria and Derbyshire. Scotland’s environment agency issued rare early water scarcity warnings.  

Ecological risks are rising too, as low streamflows and warmer waters threaten aquatic species.

How are institutions across the region responding?

The UK’s National Drought Group convened on 7 May, bringing together the Met Office, Environment Agency, water companies, and farmers. No official drought declaration has been made, but authorities warned of a “medium” risk by summer. Water utilities were told to enact dry-weather plans and reduce leaks, and while hosepipe bans haven't yet been imposed, they remain a possibility.

The Environment Agency has activated incident teams, intensified river and aquifer monitoring, and started issuing irrigation forecasts. Water companies are running public conservation campaigns and accelerating leak repairs. Across Europe, governments are similarly mobilising drought alerts and preparing contingency plans.

Are we better prepared than we were in 2022?

The situation bears strong resemblance to the 2022 drought, but there are key differences.  

Spring 2025 is actually drier than early 2022: rainfall totals through April were about 35% of average, compared to ~78% in 2022.  

Reservoirs are slightly lower than in spring 2022 as well.

However, winter 2024–25 was wetter, boosting aquifer and reservoir levels at the start of spring. That buffer may delay the worst effects.  

Also, the UK is acting earlier. In 2022, drought wasn’t declared until midsummer; in 2025, the NDG met in early May, and drought planning has intensified.  

Investments since 2022 in new infrastructure, inter-company water transfers, and real-time irrigation support are paying off.

Europe-wide, drought coordination has improved too. The CDI now plays a more central role in guiding national responses.  

Lessons from 2022 have led to better data sharing between countries and faster mobilisation of support for affected region

To find out more about the latest technological developments in drought monitoring for forecasting, take a look at our article, The evolving landscape of drought monitoring in 2025.

What’s the verdict?

Whether summer 2025 becomes a full-scale drought hinges on weather over the next few weeks.  

Sustained rainfall, of the kind seen in the wet summer of 2012, would be needed to erase the deficits. Short of that, drought impacts are likely to intensify.  

Water managers, farmers, and environmental agencies are better prepared than in 2022, but the underlying pressures – high temperatures, low rainfall, and aging water infrastructure – remain.

The coming months will reveal if improved planning can offset nature’s extremes. For now, environmental monitoring professionals are watching the skies and the gauges with concern, and a growing sense of urgency. 

Jed Thomas