Electric Vehicles Will Be Cheaper than Standard Cars in Six Years
Mar 26 2016
A report conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has predicted that the cost of purchasing, owning and running an electric vehicle (EV) will become cheaper than a car with a conventional engine by 2022.
According to BNEF, the key catalyst for a mass uptake in EVs will be the falling costs of batteries. As things currently stand, the limited capacity of EV batteries and the relative scarcity of charge points are the most off-putting factors when consumers consider buying an EV. With more sophisticated and cheaper batteries, these problems should evaporate – meaning EVs will become the logical and economical choice for all.
What the Report Says
The study used data from the US government and allowed for a yearly improvement of 3.5% in conventional engine efficiency, but still showed that EVs will become more affordable than internal-combustion engine vehicles by 2022. This is assuming that oil prices continue to follow predicted trends – in itself, an uncertain proposition.
Nonetheless, it certainly spells good news for the future of the EV market. Currently, just 1% of all new cars sold have battery-only engines. Back in 2011, Nextgreencar.com predicted that there would be "thousands" of green cars on British roads by the end of 2012. As the December figures came in, it appeared the site was correct – 3,293 eligible cars had been registered since the launch of Plug-In Car Grant at the outset of 2011.
Today, a total of 48,000 plug-in cars has been registered, with that figure expected to increase significantly over the coming years. Though predictions have not always been on target further afield (President Obama predicted one million EVs on US roads by 2015 – the real figure was just 280,000), the huge strides being made in the EV market surely show signs that the tide is turning.
In fact, a British survey carried out by BMW found that of 2,000 motorists questioned, 20% indicated they planned to make the switch to EVs with their next vehicle purchase.
The Future of Motoring
In terms of energy efficiency and ensuring the longevity of our environment, EVs are certainly the future for global motoring. If the BNEF report’s prediction that one quarter of all cars will be electric by 2040 is correct, that could slash global oil consumption by 14%. The knock-on effect this would have on carbon emissions and global warming should not be underestimated.
Indeed, in order to improve air quality and reduce transport-related pollution, EVs seem the only logical answer. Imagine London without the harmful emissions from a diesel fleet of vehicles? The as-yet elusive air quality targets imposed by the EU would surely be met in next to no time. The fact that EVs achieve significantly better fuel efficiency rates only add weight to the argument in their favour.
If they could be proved to be financially sensible as well as environmentally essential, the switch to electric could take place even sooner than hoped.
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