Is the Worst Drought in 1000 Years about to Hit the United States?

Scientists recently predicted that the worst drought in the last 1000 years is poised to hit the United States and Great Plains in the near future. The so called “drought age” will, they believe, make current lifestyles almost impossible and are caused by temperature rises due to climate change.

Mega Droughts

Whilst it’s true that in the past there have been catastrophic drought periods, it is expected that the approaching period will be far worse and long lasting. Certainly, these are the views expressed by Jason Smerdon a Climate Scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who explained ““The 21^st-century projections make the [previous] mega-droughts seem like quaint walks through the garden of Eden.”

Although the projections as to the severity and longevity of the drought have only recently been published, the actual existence of the situation has been something scientists have been expecting for some time.

Indeed, many States are already experiencing problems, and for Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas, 11 of the years since 2000 have been drought years affecting some 64 million citizens. In these places, water rations have already been imposed and many farmers have found their crops and livestock affected. Wichita Falls, Texas, US, has now started recycling wastewater into drinking water. In a state-approved project, wastewater is being purified to standards that make it safe for human consumption in an effort to bolster drinking water supplies because many areas of Texas deal with drought conditions. Will we see this system duplicated across US?

However, what is concerning is the belief that this is very much the tip of a much larger iceberg. Smerdon went on to explain, “What this study has shown is the likelihood that multi-decadal events comprising year after year after year of extreme dry events could be something in our future.”

His study, “Unprecedented 21^st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains” not only suggests that the droughts will arrive but also that their severity will be made worse by population expansion and further demands for water, both for life sustainment and for industry.

The question for many people outside of the scientific community is how the scientists are able to make such claims and how accurate they are likely to be. Certainly, publishing the research and predictions with such certainty leads many to believe that the predictions are “solid”.  However, many leaps in science have been disproven so what is it that makes them so certain that these figures and hypotheses can be relied upon?

Studying the Past

Many of the predictions made have been based upon the research which takes place at the Colombia Observatory. Among these is the study of tree rings (known as Dendroclimatology) in which the rings on the stem of an ancient tree can help to tell the scientists about the weather conditions back then. By using tree rings, the research team could gain an accurate picture into weather conditions in the 1930’s when the Dust Bowl phenomena affected millions but also back as far as the 13^th Century when a large and long lasting drought devastated entire civilisations. From this research, they were able to generate an accurate model of what could be brewing in the future.

Although it’s clear that the predictions are accurate and founded in solid facts, there are also factors which could prevent events from occurring as expected. These may include changing directions in weather patterns, a downturn in global warming or a phenomena such as El Nino.